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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)

2013-07-10 17:02:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 the center of CHANTAL was located near 16.5, -72.0 with movement W at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Public Advisory Number 11

2013-07-10 17:02:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101502 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 CORRECTED FOR EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME IN HEADER AND TEXT. ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 72.0W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JAMAICA INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS EATIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DESCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...CHANTAL OR ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...AND REACH HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2013-07-10 16:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 101458 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 10 15 26 31 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 49 47 45 38 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 65 41 36 28 30 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 57 X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Advisory Number 11

2013-07-10 16:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101457 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * JAMAICA INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.0W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.0W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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