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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-08-21 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 212032 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 50.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
2019-08-21 16:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:44:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:44:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-21 16:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211443 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little since last night. It remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Although the shear is forecast to gradually diminish, the system should remain in an environment of dry air at the low- to mid-levels for the next several days. This will likely cause weakening, and Chantal is forecast to become a depression within 48 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and only slightly below the model consensus. The motion continues eastward, or 090/17 kt. Chantal is forecast to turn clockwise and decelerate around the periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the next few days. Later in the period, the cyclone is predicted to drift northward. The official track forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.2N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-21 16:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 40.2, -51.6 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 3
2019-08-21 16:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 490 WTNT34 KNHC 211442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 51.6W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 51.6 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a tropical depression in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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