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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-07-10 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 100837 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 10 15 19 26 29 38 TROP DEPRESSION 31 49 45 41 36 31 31 TROPICAL STORM 67 40 38 37 36 37 29 HURRICANE 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 1(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LES CAYES 34 5 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 25 11(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE BEATA 34 47 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-07-10 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100837 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013 OBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY 42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS EXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25. A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN CHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-07-10 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100836 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * TURKS AND CAICOS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 69.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 69.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.8N 72.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 75.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.8N 79.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-10 07:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 05:48:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 03:04:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-10 07:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL BECOMING DISORGANIZED WHILE IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Jul 10 the center of CHANTAL was located near 15.5, -68.0 with movement W at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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