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Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 26

2020-10-15 10:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150830 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 116.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 116.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 116.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics

2020-10-15 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2020 02:38:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2020 03:23:31 GMT

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-10-15 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory. Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 hours. Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)

2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 25.7, -115.7 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Norbert Public Advisory Number 25

2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 115.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 115.7 West. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected overnight and on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Norbert is forecast to become a remnant low overnight. The remnant low is then expected to dissipate Thursday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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