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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-10-14 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Norbert continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection, but it has been very difficult pinpointing the exact location of the center overnight. Earlier ASCAT data and an 0152 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that the center could be a little north of the previous estimates, but overnight shortwave infrared imagery and TAFB and SAB fixes still place it closer to the southern portion of the convective mass. The advisory position is a compromise between the various estimates, but leans toward the previous track out of respect for continuity. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 35 kt, which is used as the initial wind speed for this advisory. The earlier ASCAT overpass revealed some slightly stronger wind vectors, but these appear to have been rain inflated. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/13 kt. Norbert is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. This general heading should continue over the next 24 to 36 hours with some reduction in forward speed as Norbert begins to weaken and is steered by the weaker low-level flow. The dynamical models are in general agreement, but there are differences in how fast and far north Norbert will move. The models that maintain a deeper cyclone depict a more poleward motion. The NHC track leans toward the southern solutions by 24 hours since Norbert is likely to weaken and become a more vertically shallow system by that time. Norbert only has a short window of opportunity in which to strengthen this morning. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should begin to weaken the tropical storm. Norbert is likely to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours as it encounters sea surface temperatures below 26C, moderate to strong shear, and a more stable atmosphere. The global models indicate that the low will dissipate within a couple of days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 22.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 22.1, -113.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 22
2020-10-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 ...NORBERT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 113.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, but the tropical storm is forecast to begin weakening by later today. Norbert is forecast to become a remnant low tonight or early Thursday, and dissipate by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-10-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 282 FOPZ14 KNHC 140836 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 17(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-10-14 10:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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