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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-10-05 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052053 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 7(28) 1(29) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-05 22:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 028 WTPZ24 KNHC 052050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2019-10-20 10:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 08:46:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 09:24:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-20 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200845 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better organized overnight. Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models indicate that the depression will move generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico later today or early tonight. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields. The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an area of moderate easterly shear. In fact, the center of the depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the convective mass. Due to the shear and the very short time the system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico. The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192019)
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 17.5, -104.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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