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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2020-10-06 04:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:56:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:56:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-06 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB. The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering currents will break down and the system will likely meander well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-10-06 04:48:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 8(21) 4(25) X(25) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 4(15) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-06 04:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 13.3, -105.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-06 04:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060247 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 105.6W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. The depression is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday, and then little change in strength is forecast through midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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