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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 104.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo westward to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico within the warning area today, and move inland by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it moves inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected after landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwest Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of the warning area later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 9 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MANZANILLO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-20 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200844 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO PLAYA PERULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of Nineteen-E Graphics
2018-09-20 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Sep 2018 08:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Sep 2018 09:20:33 GMT
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Remnants of Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-20 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 126 WTPZ44 KNHC 200832 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018 A pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of Sonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of California. The associated deep convection has taken on a more linear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern Mexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed surface circulation over the rough terrain. As such, the depression is deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this system. Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish during the next 6-12 hours. Moisture associated with the remnants of the depression will continue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next couple of days. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains will also lead to a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States today and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. For information on the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult statements from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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