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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-20 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 507 WTPZ44 KNHC 200240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas. However, much of the associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico. Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and the depression is expected to on Thursday. The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall. Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)
2018-09-20 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 27.3, -110.5 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-20 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 890 WTPZ34 KNHC 200240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 110.5W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E and its remnants. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 110.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion should take the depression inland over northwestern Mexico overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to dissipate on Thursday. The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in Baja California Sur and western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-20 04:40:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 976 FOPZ14 KNHC 200240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-20 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 741 WTPZ24 KNHC 200239 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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