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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-19 22:46:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 879 WTPZ24 KNHC 192046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 111.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 111.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2018-09-19 16:56:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 14:56:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 15:21:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-19 16:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 365 WTPZ44 KNHC 191455 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Satellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed over the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough. This is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto just west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows curved convective banding features to the east and north of the center, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system is being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained winds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the system, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western side, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output. However, the system has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to move inland without significant strengthening. An upper-level trough moving into the western United States is expected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the Gulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well advertised by the track guidance. The depression is expected to dissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain. The main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, with 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-19 16:53:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 433 FOPZ14 KNHC 191453 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)
2018-09-19 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 26.3, -110.9 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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