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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED... ...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 131.0W ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 131.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin later tonight or on Friday. The system is forecast to drift northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 2(19) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-14 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 131.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 131.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 130.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-13 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 14:54:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 15:31:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-13 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131453 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue. However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little further, and the environment appears to become more subsident within the next 2-3 days. In addition, the global models do not show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise, the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day period. It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized deep convection to be maintained. The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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