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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-15 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150833 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.2N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.5N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.2N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 133.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-15 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 935 FOPZ15 KNHC 150833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) 1(23) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-15 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:39:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:39:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-15 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150238 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however, the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model intensity consensus. The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-15 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150238 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) 2(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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