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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-14 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Since the last advisory, the depression has maintained a small ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant. Intensity fixes from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) do not indicate that the system has changed appreciably so the intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The intensity guidance is generally more bullish on the future of the depression than it has been previously. The COAMPS-TC and GFS now forecast strengthening to occur in a few days, and the latter of those models forms a symmetric CDO with an eye in simulated satellite imagery around day 5. In the short term, strong northeasterly shear should continue to limit the development potential of the cyclone, but upper-level winds could become less hostile in a few days. The main change to the NHC intensity forecast was to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone through day 5 and to show some minimal strengthening near the end of the period, though it is slightly below the intensity consensus. That said, there is perhaps equal probability that the system could become a remnant low before the environmental conditions improve, in which case no increase in the system's winds will likely occur. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is moving west-southwestward near 5 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken in a day or two, allowing the system to gain a little latitude. Regardless of its exact heading, only a slow drift is expected through early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.6N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-14 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 131.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-14 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 3(20) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-14 16:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION PERSISTS FOR NOW... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.6, -131.9 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-14 16:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 712 WTPZ35 KNHC 141432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION PERSISTS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 131.9W ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 131.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow drift toward the west-southwest is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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