je.st
news
Tag: tene
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-16 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162032 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.7N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.2N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 12.6N 140.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 134.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
cyclone
Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-16 16:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 14:48:35 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161446 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5 day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or later than indicated. The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek, a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TEN-E BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.7, -134.0 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...TEN-E BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 134.0W ABOUT 1700 MI...2735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 134.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn to the northwest then west at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a remnant low during that time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] next »