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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2020-08-16 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 4 12(16) 7(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-08-16 16:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 161445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 134.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 134.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics

2020-08-16 10:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:38:18 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression tropical depression

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-08-16 10:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160841 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the next several days, so no change in strength is called for during the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days. This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the period. This is in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)

2020-08-16 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TEN-E HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.4, -133.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression tropical depression

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