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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 22

2021-07-19 16:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191438 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 132.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Felicia Graphics

2021-07-19 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:35:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 15:22:38 GMT

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 22

2021-07-19 16:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt, and even that seems generous. The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the majority of the latest guidance. Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2021-07-19 16:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-19 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 16.3, -132.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane ep1ep062021 felicia

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