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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 26
2021-07-20 16:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 ...FELICIA FADING FAST BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 138.0W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 138.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected and Felicia is expected to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-07-20 16:45:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 001 WTPZ21 KNHC 201445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 138.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-20 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 08:37:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 09:22:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-07-20 10:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia is a rapidly weakening tropical cyclone. The system has been reduced to a low- to mid-level cloud swirl in satellite imagery, with no deep and organized convection near its center since about 0100 UTC. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show several 35-kt vectors in the northern semicircle of the compact cyclone, which supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt with this advisory. The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/13 kt. It is expected to turn slightly more west-southwestward later today and maintain this heading for the next several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Felicia will move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. Felicia is embedded within a dry and stable airmass over SSTs of around 25 deg C, and the cyclone will move under the influence of strong northwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or so. Thus, it appears very unlikely that Felicia will be able to sustain any organized convection near its center, even as it moves deeper into the tropics over slightly warmer SSTs. The official NHC intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus and weakens Felicia to a tropical depression in 12 h, and to a remnant low by 36 h. However, this could occur even sooner based on recent trends and the latest model-simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough by Thursday night as it passes well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-20 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA CONTINUES WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 15.9, -136.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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