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Tropical Depression Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-07-20 22:43:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 202043 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 139.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-20 16:49:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 14:49:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 15:22:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-07-20 16:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track, Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later today, just after 2100 UTC. Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia weakening into a tropical depression later today and then degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2021-07-20 16:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-20 16:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA FADING FAST BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 20 the center of Felicia was located near 15.8, -138.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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