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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-07-18 16:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181433 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 22 15(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 130W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 27(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 1(48) X(48) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-18 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SMALL FELICIA STILL PACKING A CATEGORY FOUR PUNCH... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Jul 18 the center of Felicia was located near 15.7, -128.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-07-18 16:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181432 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.2N 136.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 139.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.2N 141.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 146.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.5N 152.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Felicia Graphics
2021-07-18 10:41:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Jul 2021 08:41:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Jul 2021 08:41:27 GMT
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-07-18 10:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180840 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia has maintained its impressive structure tonight, with a symmetric ring of very cold infrared cloud-top temperatures surrounding a warm and well-defined eye. Recent microwave imagery shows that Felicia still has a very compact inner core. The initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt, as the hurricane's satellite appearance has shown no signs of decay since the last advisory. This intensity is consistent with subjective T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Felicia should weaken during the next couple of days as the hurricane moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, although this could be a gradual process while the vertical wind shear remains low. By Tuesday, increasing northwesterly wind shear in a drier, more stable environment is expected to accelerate the weakening of Felicia through the middle and latter parts of the week. Although the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status by day 5, it is plausible that this could occur even sooner if the higher shear values in the ECMWF SHIPS guidance materialize. The official NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance model consensus through 48 h, then aligns with the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid through the rest of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The track guidance has been quite consistent and remains in very good agreement, which makes for a high confidence track forecast. The cyclone is expected to turn more westward by Monday, then move west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by an expansive ridge across the central Pacific. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and lies between the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 15.5N 127.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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