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Summary for Hurricane Felicia (EP1/EP062021)

2021-07-18 22:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FEISTY FELICIA FINALLY WEAKENING FASTER... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Jul 18 the center of Felicia was located near 16.0, -129.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 19

2021-07-18 22:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 ...FEISTY FELICIA FINALLY WEAKENING FASTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 129.0W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 129.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a west-southwestward track through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days. Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2021-07-18 22:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 182033 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 9(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-07-18 16:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Some changes have been seen with Felicia during the past several hours. The eye is not quite as warm in satellite pictures, and there are banding features present in the eastern semicircle of the hurricane. Overall, Felicia's previously very symmetric appearance has become a little distorted to the northeast. Both SAB and TAFB give an initial wind estimate of 115 kt, and that value is used for this advisory. The big question is when will Felicia begin to weaken more significantly. Any environmental changes are fairly subtle during the next couple of days, with somewhat cooler waters and a slight increase in upper-level shear likely. While annular structure tends to be more stable, Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone, and those petite systems usually weaken quickly in marginal environments. Additionally, the latest microwave data has some suggestion of the early stages of an eyewall cycle (although it showed the same thing yesterday without much impact). All of these complex factors lead to this being a low confidence forecast during the next day or two. The new intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one, owing to the recent degradation in structure, but is still above the guidance mean. In about 3 days, much stronger shear should impact Felicia, leading to a quick death near or just after day 4. Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward by Monday, then move west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by a large ridge across the central Pacific. There is a little more spread in the guidance this morning, partially related to exactly how quickly Felicia weakens. The ECMWF, for instance, shows a faster decrease in wind speed, and is more to the southwest of the other guidance, consistent with the low-level steering flow. The GFS has the system moving slower and a little more poleward due to its stronger depiction of Felicia. The new forecast is slightly weighted toward the GFS solution, near the TCVN consensus, resulting in a small northward adjustment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 15.7N 128.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.4N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.2N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 15.8N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 15.2N 141.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 14.2N 146.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 13.5N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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