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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-06-08 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 THE CENTER OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ALL GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE U.S. COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/34 KT...AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW IN 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE ABSORPTION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR ATLANTIC CANADA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WEATHER.GC.CA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 43.6N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0000Z 45.9N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1200Z 47.0N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 47.7N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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discussion
andrea
forecast
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-06-08 16:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 081433 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1500 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 6 8 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 33 41 37 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 65 51 52 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 3 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 3 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 16(16) 21(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 36(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 34 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 47 12(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) EDDY POINT NS 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 17 29(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SYDNEY NS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 18 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) HALIFAX NS 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) YARMOUTH NS 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MONCTON NB 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EASTPORT ME 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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andrea
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-08 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS SHIFTING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND... ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 the center of ANDREA was located near 43.6, -68.8 with movement NE at 39 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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andrea
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Public Advisory Number 12
2013-06-08 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 ...HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS SHIFTING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND... ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.6N 68.8W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PORTLAND MAINE ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. INFORMATION FOR ATLANTIC CANADA IS AVAILABLE FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WEATHER.GC.CA. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WIND...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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andrea
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-06-08 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 081432 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1500 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. INFORMATION FOR ATLANTIC CANADA IS AVAILABLE FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WEATHER.GC.CA. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 68.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 34 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 220SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.6N 68.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 45.9N 63.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 47.0N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 47.7N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.6N 68.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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andrea
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