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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 7A
2013-06-07 13:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071151 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 800 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ...ANDREA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 80.2W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST. ANDREA HAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED PRIMARILY OVER WATER AND NEAR THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE- RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Graphics
2013-06-07 11:07:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 08:36:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 09:03:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-06-07 10:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 08:49:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-06-07 10:36:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070836 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ANDREA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE RAIN IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE CENTER AND A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST. BUOY AND RADAR DATA STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS....BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS INTO A POST- TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. ANDREA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 32.4N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/0600Z 39.5N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 46.5N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-06-07 10:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 070835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0900 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 7 13 16 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 26 31 39 34 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 68 59 46 46 NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 4 3 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 4 3 4 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HYANNIS MA 34 X 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 7( 7) 46(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 15(15) 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEWARK NJ 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DOVER DE 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 8 38(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NORFOLK VA 34 10 41(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 38(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) RALEIGH NC 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 26 28(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MOREHEAD CITY 34 62 5(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) WILMINGTON NC 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) WILMINGTON NC 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) CHARLESTON SC 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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