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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Graphics
2013-06-08 11:07:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Jun 2013 08:34:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Jun 2013 09:03:45 GMT
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andrea
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-06-08 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080832 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE AND USING CONTINUITY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. I DO NOT HAVE MUCH MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 40.9N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 44.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0600Z 46.5N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 47.5N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-08 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 the center of ANDREA was located near 40.9, -72.5 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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andrea
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Public Advisory Number 11
2013-06-08 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 ...POST-TROPICAL ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 72.5W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH ...56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...POST-TROPICAL ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 1 INCH OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 5 INCHES OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. WIND...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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andrea
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-06-08 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 080832 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0900 UTC SAT JUN 08 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 10 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 15 39 39 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 83 54 48 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 2 3 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 6( 6) 28(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 36(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SYDNEY NS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) HALIFAX NS 34 7 54(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) HALIFAX NS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 60 11(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) YARMOUTH NS 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 34 9 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 34 20 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BAR HARBOR ME 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AUGUSTA ME 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HYANNIS MA 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NANTUCKET MA 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PROVIDENCE RI 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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andrea
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