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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-06 19:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON... ...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 the center of ANDREA was located near 29.0, -83.6 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 4A
2013-06-06 19:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061751 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 200 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 ...ANDREA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON... ...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 83.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANDREA WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF ANDREA MOVES OVER LAND. ANDREA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES... BASED ON DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO AUCILLA RIVER...2 TO 4 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Graphics
2013-06-06 17:27:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Jun 2013 14:56:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Jun 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-06-06 17:09:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 06 Jun 2013 15:09:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-06 16:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061454 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 6500 FT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON. ANDREA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/13 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND IT IS GETTING CLOSER TO FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANDREA TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...THERE IS NO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT ANDREA WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND... SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT ANDREA WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS DO NOT SHOW STRONG BAROCLINICITY UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSITION COULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP ANDREA AS TROPICAL UNTIL 36 HOURS. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 30.3N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 33.4N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 46.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 47.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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