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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-06-06 22:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 062050 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55 KT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB. ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT. NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15. ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE. ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR COAST 12H 07/0600Z 31.9N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1800Z 35.6N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0600Z 39.8N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 43.8N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 46.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 46.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-06 22:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 the center of ANDREA was located near 29.5, -83.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 5
2013-06-06 22:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 ...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SHORTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND ANDREA SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO AUCILLA RIVER...2 TO 4 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-06-06 22:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 062049 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 2100 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 10 14 21 22 NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 28 34 33 34 31 NA TROPICAL STORM 92 66 52 49 42 43 NA HURRICANE 4 2 4 4 4 4 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 2 4 4 4 4 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) X(31) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) RALEIGH NC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 45(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 62(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 18 58(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 81 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAVANNAH GA 50 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MAYPORT NS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) JACKSONVILLE 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ORLANDO FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-06-06 22:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 062049 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 2100 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.4W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 83.4W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.9N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.6N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.8N 73.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.8N 67.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 46.6N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 83.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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