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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-05-19 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191446 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model analyses. The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-19 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue May 19 the center of Arthur was located near 36.8, -68.6 with movement E at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Public Advisory Number 12
2020-05-19 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191445 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 ...ARTHUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 68.6W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 68.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and Arthur is expected to gradually turn southward and slow down over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-05-19 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 191445 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 2 6( 8) 20(28) 11(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-05-19 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191445 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 68.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 68.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 68.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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