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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-19 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 May 2020 08:32:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 May 2020 09:24:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190831 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Arthur's cloud pattern has continued to take on a generally post-tropical appearance, though a recent convective burst near its center suggests that it isn't quite post-tropical yet. Satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data also indicate the presence of a developing warm front near the cyclone's center, and this could be contributing the the development of the aforementioned convective burst. ASCAT-C data that arrived early this morning showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, and this was the primary basis for the initial intensity. Virtually no change was made to the intensity forecast. Despite the recent increase of convection near Arthur's center, extratropical transition should finish fairly soon. Slight strengthening due to baroclinic forcing is possible through the afternoon, but the cyclone is forecast to begin spinning down by tonight or Wednesday morning. The global and regional models indicate that the system will dissipate within about 72 h, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Only small adjustments were made to the track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. As Arthur weakens it should be steered generally southward around the east side of a low-level ridge. The models differ on how quickly the southward turn will occur, but all agree on that general scenario. The latest NHC forecast is a little west of the previous one after 24 h. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 37.0N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 190830 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-05-19 10:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190830 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 80SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 70.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-19 10:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO BECOME POST TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue May 19 the center of Arthur was located near 37.0, -70.6 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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