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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-18 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 08:38:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 08:38:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-05-18 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Arthur remains poorly organized in both satellite and radar imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of a complex of ragged convective bands. Surface observations from buoys off of the North Carolina coast suggest the central pressure has fallen a little since the last aircraft fix, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Arthur between 11-12Z. Arthur's forward speed has increased with the initial motion now 020/12. A baroclinic trough and associated surface front approaching from the west should cause Arthur to turn northeastward during the next several hours, with the forecast track showing the center passing near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday and Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward for a day or two. After that time, Arthur or its remnants should turn southeastward and southward on the southwest side of a deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. The latest guidance is showing a more southward motion after 60 h than seen previously, and the new forecast track is also nudged southward during that time. Arthur is moving near and almost parallel to the Gulf Stream, and the warm water could allow some strengthening before southwesterly shear increases significantly later today. The cyclone should merge with a frontal system and become extratropical in the 24-36 h period, with the global models indicating some increase in the winds north of the center as this occurs. The intensity forecast calls for Arthur to reach a 50 kt intensity in 36 h as an extratropical low in best agreement with the GFS model. After 48 h, the system should decay, and the global models suggest it should dissipate in the 96-120 h period. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there today. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 33.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-05-18 10:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE HATTERAS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 32 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MOREHEAD CITY 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 3(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-18 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ARTHUR GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS SPREADING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon May 18 the center of Arthur was located near 33.5, -76.6 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 7
2020-05-18 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 ...CENTER OF ARTHUR GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS SPREADING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 76.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 76.6 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today. Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. The Cherry Point Marine Corps Air station recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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