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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-05-18 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 307 FONT11 KNHC 181441 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 23(33) X(33) X(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-05-18 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 144 WTNT21 KNHC 181441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.2N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-18 13:58:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 11:58:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 09:24:40 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-18 13:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon May 18 the center of Arthur was located near 34.5, -75.9 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-05-18 13:54:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 800 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 ...ARTHUR BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 75.9W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today. Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41025 located about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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