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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-05-19 04:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 935 FONT11 KNHC 190251 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 15(24) 11(35) X(35) X(35) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-05-19 04:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 573 WTNT21 KNHC 190251 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 72.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 72.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.4N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 90SE 90SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.7N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 60SE 60SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.3N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.9N 64.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 72.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-18 22:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 20:52:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 May 2020 20:52:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-05-18 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 630 WTNT41 KNHC 182039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Although the center of Arthur did not make landfall in the North Carolina Outer Banks, it passed within about 20 n mi southeast of Cape Hatteras around 1500 UTC. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been reported at several automated observing sites on and near the Outer Banks, with the highest sustained wind of 34 kt at Alligator River Bridge earlier this afternoon. Deep convection continues over the northeastern portion of Arthur's circulation, but visible imagery has recently shown an increase in separation between low-level center and the convective activity. This is the result of increasing southwesterly shear and the beginning of the cyclone's extratropical transition. The initial intensity remains 45 kt, which was in agreement with the earlier aircraft data. As the cyclone completes its extratropical transition, some strengthening is forecast due to baroclinic processes. After 24 hours, little change in strength is expected until the frontal gradients decrease on Wednesday. The system should gradually spin down after that time, and dissipate by late in the week. The initial motion estimate is 045/14 kt. Arthur should continue northeastward this evening, but is expected to turn eastward Tuesday morning as the cyclone becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. Troughing over the central and western Atlantic should cause the Arthur to turn southeastward on Wednesday when the steering flow becomes northwesterly. Little change was required to the previous NHC official forecast and the updated track again lies between the GFS, ECMWF, and the multi-model consensus. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 36.9N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.0N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 36.2N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 34.8N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 31.5N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-05-18 22:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 610 FONT11 KNHC 182039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 23(35) X(35) X(35) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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