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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 22:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 20:48:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 20:48:55 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-30 22:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302044 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized today, with a well-defined convective band that wraps more than completely around the cloud system center. This yields a Dvorak intensity estimate of at least 65 kt, and subjective and objective T-numbers from SAB and UW-CIMSS respectively also correspond to an intensity of 65 kt. Therefore, the system is being upgraded to a hurricane, which is the first for the month of September in this relatively quiet eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The vertical wind shear has decreased and is forecast to remain low for the next few days. This, combined with a moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass and warm sea surface temperatures, should lead to an environment that is very conducive for strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI Index shows a significant probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours. Therefore, the official forecast calls for Marie to become a major hurricane tomorrow with additional strengthening during the succeeding day. This is close to the predictions from the two corrected consensus techniques, HCCA and FSSE. By 72 hours, Marie should have begun passing over progressively cooler waters, so a steady weakening trend is likely to be underway by that time. The motion continues just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning hasn't changed much from the previous advisories. Over the next few days, the hurricane should be steered on a westward to west-northwestward course on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Right around the end of the forecast period, Marie should begin to turn more to the right in response to a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-30 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 302041 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 120W 34 X 92(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 120W 50 X 62(62) 15(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 120W 64 X 34(34) 19(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 42(51) 5(56) 1(57) X(57) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 3(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 35(67) 3(70) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 2(35) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-30 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.3, -115.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-30 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 115.1W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday with additional strengthening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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