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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-10-01 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011436 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 46 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 125W 34 X 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 57(80) 3(83) 1(84) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 4(50) X(50) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-01 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 15.2, -119.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 10
2020-10-01 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 119.5W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with decreasing forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight or sooner. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-01 10:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 08:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 09:25:19 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-01 10:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010835 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has become much better organized over the past several hours, with a nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON. Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification (RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26 degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance. The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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