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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-02 22:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Marie was located near 16.9, -125.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-02 22:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 125.0W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-02 22:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022039 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-02 16:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 14:49:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 14:49:14 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous advisory. A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall replacement is occuring. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's falling to T5.5. In addition, final-T numbers from the objective ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago. Because of the estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt. Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate. A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward the northwest in the next 24 hours. After that time, a general motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the guidance does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering flow. Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid. Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which time some additional strengthening is possible. Any intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement, but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this time. Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming a tropical depression by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
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