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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-10-01 22:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 012042 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 1 42(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 125W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 49(80) 3(83) X(83) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 2(48) X(48) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 1(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 4(30) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-01 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012041 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-01 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 14:38:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 15:25:12 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-01 16:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist, low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight, so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours. The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-01 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 029 WTPZ23 KNHC 011436 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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