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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.8 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane this evening or tonight. Marie could then become a major hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301443 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 10:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 08:38:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 09:25:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to become better organized with a curved band of convection over the western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small. Subjective satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity has been set at 50 kt. Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear, it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the shear is decreasing as anticipated. Marie is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next couple of days. These very conducive conditions favor strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. The official forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours. The updated NHC wind speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in steady to rapid weakening. Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than before. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 43 16(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 115W 50 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 88(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 68(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 43(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 32(64) 1(65) X(65) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 48(59) 8(67) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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