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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

2018-10-07 04:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070238 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 6(46) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 10N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 26(30) 16(46) X(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 3 10(13) 14(27) 8(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-07 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SERGIO LUMBERING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Sergio was located near 14.5, -125.4 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 31

2018-10-07 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070237 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 ...SERGIO LUMBERING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 125.4W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 125.4 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. The hurricane is forecast to slow down and make a sharp northeastward turn on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 31

2018-10-07 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070235 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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