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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-10-06 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 There has been little change in Sergio's satellite presentation today. The large eye remains well defined in visible and infrared satellite imagery, but there has been a slight warming of the surrounding cloud tops since this morning. However, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 110 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary factor regarding Sergio's future intensity will be ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone over the next few days, since the other environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable. Sergio should remain over warm waters during the next day or so, but some upwelling of cooler water is possible as Sergio slows down and makes its predicted sharp turn Sunday night and Monday, and this is forecast to cause some gradual weakening during that time. After 72 hours, cooler waters, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are likely to result in additional weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the higher statistical guidance and the consensus aids, and is very similar to the previous advisory. Sergio is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. The hurricane should turn westward tonight before making a sharp northeastward turn as a mid-level trough drops southward to the north of Sergio and erodes the western portion of the ridge. By early next week, Sergio should move northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but there continues to be differences in the future forward speed of the hurricane. The guidance has once again trended a little slower this cycle, and the new NHC track lies between the previous forecast and the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.6N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 20.0N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.2N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-06 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO EXPECTED TO MAKE A U-TURN EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Sergio was located near 14.6, -124.7 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-06 16:45:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 14:45:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 14:45:47 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-06 16:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061444 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 Sergio has remained nearly steady-state since last night and the clear eye is still surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The initial intensity remains 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. The primary moderating factor for Sergio's intensity over the next few days will likely be sea surface temperatures since GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the environment will be otherwise favorable. Sergio is now moving west-southwestward at around 6 kt, likely just fast enough to outrun its own cold wake. Little change in Sergio's intensity is expected for the next day or so while the hurricane is forecast to continue moving at around this same forward speed. By early next week, a slower motion will likely cause some weakening to occur, as Sergio becomes trapped over colder upwelled waters, with further weakening likely when Sergio reaches much cooler waters to the north. The ocean-coupled regional models show more weakening than currently indicated by the official forecast, while DSHP and LGEM show a stronger storm, probably in part because those models use a constant ocean field. Confidence in the intensity forecast is not very high, and it is likely that the faster Sergio moves, the stronger it will be. The global models are in fairly good agreement on the general track of Sergio through the middle of next week, but they disagree on how quickly Sergio will move along that path. Sergio is still forecast to make a sharp u-turn toward the northeast over the next 3 days and then accelerate in that direction between 72 and 120 h. Most of the models are showing a slightly slower forward speed than earlier cycles. However there are still large differences in their representation of a shortwave trough off the coast of California that will cause Sergio's acceleration, and the model spread remains high. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory but generally shows a slower speed, especially after 48 h, in line with the latest track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.7N 124.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-06 16:43:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO EXPECTED TO MAKE A U-TURN EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Sergio was located near 14.7, -124.0 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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