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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2018-10-08 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 081447 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 4(40) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 1(50) X(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) 15N 125W 34 4 5( 9) 8(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 125W 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 26(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)

2018-10-08 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Sergio was located near 15.3, -128.6 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 37

2018-10-08 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 081447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward or northeastward drift is expected today and tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast beginning tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days, and Sergio is forecast to become a tropical storm by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 37

2018-10-08 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 081447 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 90 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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