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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 29
2018-10-06 16:43:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 061442 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 ...SERGIO EXPECTED TO MAKE A U-TURN EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 124.0W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 124.0 West. Sergio is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to slow down and make a sharp northeastward turn by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today, and slow weakening possible by the end of the weekend. However, Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane through the first half of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2018-10-06 16:43:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 061442 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15N 120W 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 26(52) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 125W 64 54 5(59) X(59) X(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 23(40) 1(41) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 29
2018-10-06 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 061442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-06 10:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 08:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 08:47:10 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-10-06 10:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060845 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018 Sergio has changed little in structure since the last advisory. It still has a 25-30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective tops, and with not much change in intensity estimates, the estimated maximum winds remain 110 kt. Sergio's intensity is not likely to change much during the next day or two, although some slight weakening is possible as the hurricane's speed slows down and it upwells some colder water from below, or due to possible internal structural changes. More definitive weakening is anticipated by days 4 and 5 due to an increase in westerly and southwesterly shear and the hurricane reaching colder waters. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to a blend of the ICON consensus and the HCCA model. However, the statistical-dynamical models remain a bit higher, and it is possible that Sergio won't lose quite as much punch during the next several days as is indicated by the official forecast. Sergio continues to dive southwestward with an initial motion of 235/7 kt. A shortwave trough swinging across the Baja California peninsula will bypass Sergio during the day, leaving a weakness in the ridge that will allow the hurricane to begin making a sharp northward and then northeastward turn during the next 24-72 hours. Another shortwave trough forecast to dig southward off the California coast will then cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward on days 4 and 5. Notable changes in this forecast update include a slightly wider turn from 24-72 hours, and more spread in the model speeds once Sergio accelerates toward the Baja California peninsula. As is usually the case in these scenarios, the ECMWF is much slower than the other models, and because of that, the new NHC forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, especially on day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.9N 123.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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