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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 36
2018-10-08 10:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080850 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Sergio continues to have a large 60 nmi diameter eye with several mesovorticies within it. Although the cloud pattern is quite symmetric around the eye, the cloud tops are not very cold, likely due to some ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane. The Dvorak estimates are largely unchanged from earlier and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Sergio is now drifting northwestward in weak steering currents. A shortwave trough is expected to approach Sergio from the north, and that feature, and a large trough over the southwestern United States should cause Sergio to turn northeastward tonight. This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the remainder of the week. The models are in good agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Sergio is expected to be very near the Baja California peninsula in about 4 days. Sergio is expected to hold its strength or weaken only slightly during the next day or so while it remains in a favorable atmospheric environment. However, steady weakening is expected after that time due to increasing shear, drier air, and progressively cooler waters along the forecast track. Based on the intensity guidance and environmental conditions, Sergio is expected to be a tropical storm by the time it nears the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone should weaken quickly once it moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Recent ASCAT data was very helpful in analyzing the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 120H 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 36
2018-10-08 10:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 60 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2018-10-08 10:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080850 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 2(34) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 2(52) X(52) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 4 5( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 22(31) 14(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-08 10:49:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Sergio was located near 15.2, -128.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 36
2018-10-08 10:49:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080849 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 128.1W ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 128.1 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected tonight, and that motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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