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Remnants of Nora Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-30 10:50:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300850 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 108.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-30 07:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300550 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 90.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF GREENSBURG LOUISIANA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and satellite data near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow station in Mandeville, Louisiana. Along the Gulf coast, a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through today. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast today and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through this morning over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama later today. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates are being discontinued after the 100 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nora Public Advisory Number 18A
2021-08-30 07:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300532 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...NORA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 108.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Nora dissipates inland later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Nora has become very disorganized, and is forecast to dissipate inland later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-30 04:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 90.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however, Ida is expected to remain a hurricane for several more hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph ( 104 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 mph (145 km/h) were reported recently reported at the New Orleans International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-30 04:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300243 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 90.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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