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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 5
2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo southward to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual acceleration prior to landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have incrased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected prior to landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late this morning and afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches is expected for western Oaxaca, as well as southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-06-19 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-06-19 07:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 91.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving erratically toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or subtropical storm through this morning while the center is over or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening this afternoon as it moves farther inland. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on available surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area today. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-06-19 07:44:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190543 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 102.9W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 102.9 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area this afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall this afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190243 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 90.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 90.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 90.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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