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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-06-19 19:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191736 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES'S CENTER MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 103.9W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located inland over Mexico near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 103.9 West. Dolores is moving faster toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected this afternoon and tonight while the center moves inland over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico. Dolores is likely to dissipate over west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An inland station in the mountains at Sierra Manantlan reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) during the past few hours. A station at Colima reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will continue to spread inland across portions of west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Additionally, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches is expected for western Oaxaca. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southwestern coast of Mexico will gradually subside as the center of Dolores moves farther inland. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-06-19 19:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191735 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 88.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 88.6 West. Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area for a couple of more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 8
2021-06-19 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191438 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 89.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, and for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 89.7 West. Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...1-2 ft Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-06-19 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 89.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 89.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 89.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 955 WTPZ24 KNHC 191436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 103.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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