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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 90.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 90.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should moved inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or subtropical storm through Saturday morning while the center is over or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening Saturday afternoon as it moves farther inland. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. Several oil rigs of off the coast of southeastern Louisiana have recently reported sustained winds of 40-45 mph (65-70 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area through Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-19 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DOLORES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TONIGHT... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 102.8W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 102.8 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall Saturday afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning later tonight or on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-19 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190237 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-06-19 01:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 182339 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 91.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward or east-northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is forecast after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is slowly becoming better defined, and the system still is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm before landfall. Regardless of its status, little change in strength is expected through landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after the system crosses the coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. An oil rig south of the southeastern coast of Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central to northern Georgia, far western North Carolina and western South Carolina, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast within the warning area, and these winds will continue into Saturday. TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two tonight across coastal Louisiana. A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-06-19 01:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182339 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DOLORES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 102.5W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 102.5 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated through Saturday as the center of Dolores approaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is forecast once the center moves inland, and Dolores is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning tonight or on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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