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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-06-20 04:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Dolores Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-06-20 02:01:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200001 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Corrected header ...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 104.2W ABOUT 83 MI...133 KM NW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO ABOUT 78 MI...126 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores was located inland near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 104.2 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Durango. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday. Surface observations indicate that the minimum central pressure has risen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through this evening. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-06-20 01:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...CENTER OF CLAUDETTE NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 87.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 87.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water well to the south of the center. Claudette is expected to weaken a little tonight, however, it is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across eastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas. The storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 104.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 104.1W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located inland near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 104.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A station near the Nevado de Colima volcano in the state of Jalisco recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will continue to spread inland across portions of west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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