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Remnants of Pamela Public Advisory Number 16

2021-10-14 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140238 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Pamela Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF PAMELA SPREADING OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 101.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF LARADO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Pamela were located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 101.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight and Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants are Pamela are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flooding potential over the south-central United States, please consult products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Remnants of Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-10-14 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140238 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 101.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 101.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 101.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAMELA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-10-13 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 132034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 103.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 103.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.6N 100.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 14A

2021-10-13 19:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131757 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM PAMELA MOVING WELL INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 104.8W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal watches and warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of recently downgraded Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 104.8 West. Pamela is accelerating toward the northeast near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue at a faster speed until the system dissipates. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast as the center moves farther inland and Pamela is expected to dissipate by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (220 km) from the center. A high-elevation station at La Michilia in the Mexican state of Durango recently observed a wind gust of 78 mph (125 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge along portions of the coast of Sinaloa will gradually subside this afternoon. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions will continue inland across portion of west-central Mainland Mexico for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 14

2021-10-13 16:47:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM PAMELA MOVING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 106.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa. All other Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Pamela is accelerating toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue at a faster speed prior to dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast as the center moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are occuring within the Tropical Storm Warning area for the next few hours but should end later this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

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