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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-10-11 04:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 3

2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Pamela. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2

2021-10-10 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 101440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...COULD IMPACT A PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 104.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Tuesday night and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1

2021-10-10 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...STRENGTHENING FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 102.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 102.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual slowdown in forward motion with a turn to the northwest is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several days and the depression could be near hurricane intensity by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-10-10 10:48:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 125 WTPZ21 KNHC 100848 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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