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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE PAMELA REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 108.9W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the current track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is forecast to make landfall in southwestern mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 278 WTPZ21 KNHC 120236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLA MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-10-12 01:52:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112352 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 108.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya southward to Escuinapa. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Bahia Tempehuaya northward to Altata, and also from Escuinapa southward to Cabo Corrientes, including all of the Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 108.8 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night, and make landfall in southwestern mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112054 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 108.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the current Watch areas later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur late tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Pamela is forecast remain a major hurricane until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-10-11 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 647 WTPZ21 KNHC 112053 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.3N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 102.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 97.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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