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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-28 09:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280854 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 210SE 210SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-10-28 06:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280553 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 91.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 91.5 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely overnight and this morning, and Zeta is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast this morning through today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic late today through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the early morning hours. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-28 03:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280254 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 ...ZETA FORECAST TO BE A FAST-MOVING HURRICANE THAT BRINGS A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 91.2W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon, move close to the Mississippi coast Wednesday evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again overnight and reach the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday as a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast tonight through Wednesday, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the rest of tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-28 03:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280253 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 91.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 91.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 90.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 91.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-27 21:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 90.3W ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north- northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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