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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-25 03:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250251 CCA TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 510SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 320SE 350SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 350SE 350SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-25 03:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning, and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-25 03:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 25
2020-10-25 03:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 ...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.3N 56.1W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 56.1 West. Epsilon is accelerating toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Continued acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after it becomes post-tropical on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-10-25 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242333 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain south of western Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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